6
Troubler
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2025 | 7th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |