2
Alma's Law
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |