3
Pencima
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 52
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |