5
Serena Fly
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |