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2

Kaz Music

6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 76

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Finger Lakes 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 73 · 6f 126 · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 73 par30/09C7OR 73C7 @ Presque Isle Downs 22/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 76 parC7 @ Finger Lakes 04/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark04/11/2025 · OR 81 par4/11C7OR 81C6 @ Finger Lakes 19/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m 122 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 80 parC8 @ Penn National 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 6f 123 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 80 par20/12C8OR 80C7 @ Finger Lakes 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 78 · 5f 124 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Finger Lakes 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f110y 124 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 75 par3/06C7OR 75C7 @ Finger Lakes 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 6f Slo 124 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 72 parC7 @ Finger Lakes 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 73 · 6f 124 · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 73 par16/09C7OR 73projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Finger Lakes?4th5th−1
2026-09-02Finger Lakes?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-03Finger Lakes?5th6th−1
2026-05-05Finger Lakes?2nd3rd−1
2025-12-20Penn National?1st3rd−2
2025-11-19Finger Lakes?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0919/113/0616/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength82%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20253rd6/168%60%-0.08
22/10/20256th25/10%17%+0.17
04/11/20252nd16/116%83%+0.68
19/11/20254th25/10%40%+0.40
20/12/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
05/05/20262nd15/890%67%-0.23
03/06/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
02/09/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
16/09/20264th8/158%63%+0.05