Lady Serenity
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 77
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |