1
Mischievous Trick
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 21/01/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |