4
Fiscal Drag
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |