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6

Grand Warrior

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79

Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 10/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS10/10C6C7 @ Woodbine 15/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 42 · 1m110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/11/2025 · OR 42 parC7 @ Woodbine 07/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 56 · 1m110y Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 56 par7/12C7OR 56C9 @ Woodbine 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 66 · 7f 119 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 66 parC9 @ Woodbine 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 7f Fas 118 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 71 par7/06C9OR 71C5 @ Fort Erie 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 7f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Fort Erie 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 74 · 1m70y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 74 par20/07C5OR 74C5 @ Fort Erie 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 76 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 76 par31/08C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Fort Erie?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-20Fort Erie?1st-2th+3
2026-06-30Fort Erie?5th2nd+3
2026-06-07Woodbine?1st2nd−1
2026-05-31Woodbine?5th6th−1
2025-12-07Woodbine?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1031/0520/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20255th3/184%20%-0.64
15/11/20254th3/184%63%-0.22
07/12/20256th6/168%0%-0.68
31/05/20265th7/282%43%-0.39
07/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
30/06/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
20/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
31/08/20262nd5/493%75%-0.18