8
Real Eleve
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 54
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |