9
Renaissance Man
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |