Rockstar Casanova
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |