1
Kaymus
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 53
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 13% | -0.70 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 15/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |