5
My Royal Vow
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 01/07/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 1/4 | 99% | 50% | -0.49 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |