7
Thin Legs
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |