4
Beach Invasion
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 25/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |