2
Big Rich
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 82
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |