5
Maturation
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |