6
Senegal
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |