Stop The Spread
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |