Hard Performer
7yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2022 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 06/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |