10
Liv Has Rizz
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +14.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 15/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |