1
New Matthew
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 63
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |