4
Plex
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |