5
Buttonwood Tree
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-10-14 | Hastings Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Hastings Racecourse | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 22/06/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/08/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/09/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 14/10/2024 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |