6
Delian League
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |