Mannix
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/10/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 07/12/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |