1
Onenightstandards
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |