IvyArcIvyArc
3

Mo Argento

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 71

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 77 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 77 par5/07C7OR 77C7 @ Woodbine 26/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 79 · 6f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 79 parC7 @ Woodbine 05/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 78 par5/09C7OR 78C9 @ Woodbine 10/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 6f 121 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 80 parC8 @ Woodbine 18/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 77 par18/06C8OR 77C5 @ Fort Erie 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 73 · 5f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 73 parC5 @ Fort Erie 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 6f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 73 par20/07C5OR 73C5 @ Fort Erie 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Fort Erie 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 75 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 75 par30/08C8OR 75projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Fort Erie?5th5th0
2026-08-17Fort Erie?1st-2th+3
2026-07-20Fort Erie?4th1st+3
2026-07-06Fort Erie?1st-2th+3
2026-06-18Woodbine?6th6th0
2025-10-10Woodbine?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0710/1020/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
26/07/20252nd9/276%92%+0.16
05/09/20254th10/382%57%-0.25
10/10/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
18/06/20266th7/282%0%-0.82
06/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
20/07/20264th3/184%57%-0.27
17/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
30/08/20265th13/891%20%-0.71