4
Palmilla's Bet
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 17/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |