5
Rifling
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 72
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |