2
Silent Passion
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 1/2 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |