1
Souper Cop
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 68
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 22/07/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |