1
Back River
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-05 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 05/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 30/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |