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4

Ilikeitwhenitsnows

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65

Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength32%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fort Erie 04/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f 1224/08C6C6 @ Fort Erie 18/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 6f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark18/08/2025 · OR 63 parC6 @ Fort Erie 09/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 122 · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 62 par9/09C6OR 62C9 @ Fort Erie 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 57 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 57 parC6 @ Fort Erie 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 51 · 7f Fm 122 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 51 par29/06C6OR 51C6 @ Fort Erie 12/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 53 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 53 parC6 @ Fort Erie 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 7f 122 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 51 par11/08C6OR 51C5 @ Fort Erie 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 53 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 53 parC5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 59 par7/09C5OR 59projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Fort Erie?6th5th+1
2026-08-30Fort Erie?1st1st0
2026-08-11Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2026-07-12Fort Erie?5th6th−1
2026-06-29Fort Erie?4th5th−1
2025-09-23Fort Erie?2nd6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0823/0911/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20254th10/147%40%-0.07
18/08/20253rd14/126%60%+0.34
09/09/20256th16/116%17%+0.01
23/09/20252nd11/271%75%+0.04
29/06/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
12/07/20265th7/163%0%-0.63
11/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
30/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
07/09/20266th25/10%44%+0.44