5
Princessonamission
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 67
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |