3
Times A Breeze
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |