Let's Go Liam
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 11/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 03/05/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 10% | -0.69 |
| 30/06/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 71% | -0.22 |