4
Sassagoula River
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 63
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |