3
Smarter Still
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/12/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |