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4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 55

Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

70%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Woodbine 25/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 49 · 6f110y 118 · below its mark25/07/2025 · OR 49 par25/07C9OR 49C9 @ Woodbine 10/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 52 · 6f 118 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 52 parC9 @ Woodbine 07/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 54 · 7f 118 · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 54 par7/09C9OR 54C9 @ Woodbine 01/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f 119 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 60 parC9 @ Fort Erie 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 49 · 6f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 49 par7/07C9OR 49C5 @ Fort Erie 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 49 · 1m70y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 49 parC5 @ Fort Erie 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 47 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 47 par3/08C5OR 47C8 @ Fort Erie 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 51 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 51 parC8 @ Fort Erie 15/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 53 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 53 par15/09C8OR 53projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Fort Erie?8th8th0
2026-08-31Fort Erie?4th4th0
2026-08-03Fort Erie?5th2nd+3
2026-07-20Fort Erie?4th1st+3
2026-07-07Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2025-11-01Woodbine?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/071/113/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20257th25/10%40%+0.40
10/08/20255th20/10%20%+0.20
07/09/202511th40/10%23%+0.23
01/11/20256th20/10%29%+0.29
07/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
20/07/20264th10/147%25%-0.22
03/08/20265th25/10%20%+0.20
31/08/20264th33/10%50%+0.50
15/09/20268th20/10%0%0.00