2
Because
7yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 82
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |