Dreaming Of Hope
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 80
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-10-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 11/10 | 94% | 22% | -0.72 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |