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6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 71

Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.4

Today:

Class gap: +0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Fort Erie	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-08-17	Fort Erie	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-03	Fort Erie	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-21	Fort Erie	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-06-29	Fort Erie	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-21	Fort Erie	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▬

Strength32%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 5.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/10/2025	2nd	12/1	37%	88%	+0.51
27/11/2025	5th	11/2	71%	20%	-0.51
31/05/2026	1st	10/11	95%	100%	+0.05
21/06/2026	5th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
29/06/2026	3rd	7/4	91%	67%	-0.24
21/07/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
03/08/2026	4th	5/1	74%	40%	-0.34
17/08/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
30/08/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	60%	+0.13