IvyArcIvyArc
4

Really Thirsty

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 78

Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Charles Town 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 70 · 4f110y Fas 124 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 70 par7/02C8OR 70C8 @ Charles Town 08/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 4f110y 124 · beat its mark08/03/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Charles Town 22/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 66 · 4f110y Fas 126 · below its mark22/03/2026 · OR 66 par22/03C8OR 66C8 @ Fort Erie 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 69 · 5f Fm 124 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Fort Erie 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 73 · 7f Fm 122 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 73 par12/07C8OR 73C8 @ Fort Erie 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 5f 122 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 73 parC6 @ Fort Erie 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 78 par10/08C6OR 78C8 @ Fort Erie 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 74 parC5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 75 par7/09C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Fort Erie?3rd1st+2
2026-08-30Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2026-08-10Fort Erie?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-27Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2026-07-12Fort Erie?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-29Fort Erie?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0229/0610/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/02/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
08/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
22/03/20264th13/266%50%-0.16
29/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/07/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
27/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
10/08/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
30/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
07/09/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09