Candid Candace
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |