Dreams And Schemes
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 78
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |