5
Glitter Bay
8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 55
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 16/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 13/08/2025 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 06/05/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |