8
Hot Omelet
7yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 73
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |