Knotty And Nice
6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-07-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 23/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 22/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 10% | -0.53 |